Small Business Optimism Declined 0.8 Points in September to 97.9

Washington, DC, October 13, 2026—The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.8 points in September to 97.9, one-tenth of a point below the 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose one point to 90, remaining well above the historical average of 68. Labor quality or availability remained the top reported issue for the third consecutive month.

“Small business optimism near the long-term average in September as Main Street owners remain uncertain about business conditions,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Small business owners are proceeding with caution as they interpret how rising costs, interest rates, and the difficulty in finding qualified employees are impacting their business.”

Key findings:

• The second top issue in September was inflation, with 20% of owners reporting it as their single most important problem, up four points from August. September’s reading remains elevated, with a historical average of 7%.
• Expectations for better business conditions worsened for the second consecutive month. A net 6% (seasonally adjusted) of owners expect better conditions in the next six months, down 4 points from August but remaining above average.
• Only 7% (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down five points from August.
• Small business owners’ self-evaluation of the health of their business shifted negatively in September, with substantially more owners reporting their business “fair” (35%, up seven points) rather than “good” (48%, down nine points).
• The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains fell 4 points to a net negative 10% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest reading since September 2024. A net 2% (seasonally adjusted) plan inventory investment in the coming months, up one point from August and the highest reading since December 2024.
• A net 8% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, up four points from August and the highest level since June 2025. The average interest rate on short-maturity loans was 8.2% in September, up 0.7 points from August and close to the historical average of 8.3%.
• Poor sales and taxes are tied as the third most important problem among small business owners in September. Eleven percent of small business owners reported poor sales as their top issue, up one point from August and the third consecutive month of increase. The percent of small business owners reporting taxes as their single most important problem decreased five points from August to 11%.