Leading Economic Indicators Reverse Course

New York, NY, Aug. 19, 2010–The Index of Leading Economic Indicators for the U.S. increased 0.1% in July to 109.8, following a 0.3% decline in June, and a 0.5% increase in May.

“The indicators point to a slow expansion through the end of the year,” said Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board.

“With inventory rebuilding moderating, the industrial core of the economy has moved to a slower pace. There appears to be no change in the pace of the service sector. Combined, the result is a weak economy with little forward momentum. However, the good news is that the data do not point to a recession.”

Conference Board economist Ataman Ozyildirim said the economy should continue expanding, albeit slowly.

“The LEI is growing at its slowest pace since mid-2009 and it has been essentially flat since March,” Ozyildirim said.

“However, the index is still well above pre-recession levels and the CEI remains on a rising trend that began in late 2009. All four coincident indicators have risen over the last six months, with July’s gain in industrial production offsetting the recent weakness in employment.”