Home Prices Rose 1.1% YOY in May, Says Case-Shiller

New York, NY, July 28, 2026—The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.1% annual gain for May. 

The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 2.4%, up from a 1.8% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, up from a 1.2% rise in the previous month.

Chicago reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.9% increase in May, followed by New York and Cleveland with annual increases of 4.2% and 3.1%, respectively. Las Vegas posted the lowest return in May, falling 1.9%. The chart below compares year-over-year returns for different housing price ranges (tiers) in Chicago.

“May’s data suggests that U.S. home prices continue to decline in real terms, with the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index up a modest 1.1% year over year,” said Rebecca Kaufman, associate director of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “At the same time, inflation peaked at 4.2% in May, its highest level in over three years. Even on a nominal basis, the market remains noticeably weaker than a year ago. In May 2025, the National Home Price Index was up 2.4% year over year.

“The geographic dispersion of home price trends continues to persist,” Kaufman continued. “While major metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest recorded year-over-year gains exceeding the national average, many metropolitan areas in the West and Sunbelt regions remain under pressure.

“For the third consecutive month, Chicago led all metros with a 6.9% annual increase in May, followed by New York (4.2%) and Cleveland (3.1%). In contrast, Las Vegas posted the largest decline, falling 1.9% year over year, with Seattle (-1.8%), Denver (-1.8%), and Tampa (-1.6%) also registering notable losses.

“This divergence may reflect shifting post-pandemic housing dynamics, including a growing return-to- office mandate that appears to be supporting traditional urban markets.

“Monthly price appreciation continues to reflect the seasonal strength often associated with the spring homebuying season,” Kaufman observed. “On a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, the National Index rose 0.6% in May from April, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites each advanced 0.9%.

“After adjusting for seasonality, the National Index declined 0.05% month over month, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted modest gains of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. The gap between the NSA and seasonally adjusted results underscores the extent to which seasonal factors are supporting headline price growth. Even where prices increased on a seasonally adjusted basis, gains remained modest and were negative in real terms.

“Affordability remains a significant headwind for the housing market,” Kaufman concluded. “Thirty-year mortgage rates increased to 6.5% in May, leaving the ultra-low 3% borrowing costs a distant memory. At the same time, stubbornly high inflation rates are keeping both the cost of home financing and the cost of living high for prospective buyers.

“Against this backdrop, housing demand remains constrained, elevated borrowing costs continue to discourage potential homebuyers, and housing values decline in real terms for existing homeowners.”

The pre-seasonally adjusted 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices recorded monthly gains of 0.9%, while the U.S. National Index posted a 0.6% gain.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National reported a monthly decrease of 0.05% while the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices posted 0.3% and 0.1% gains, respectively.