Small Business Optimism Virtually Flat in October at 97.8

Washington, DC, November 10, 2026—The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October was 97.8, down 0.1 points from September and slightly below the 53-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index fell six points from September to 84, the lowest level since December 2025.

“There was little change in optimism among small businesses in October as owners navigated enduring challenges, though there were some encouraging developments,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Even with inflation pressures continuing to strain operations, more Main Street owners reported their businesses in good or excellent health, and actual sales improved. Looking ahead, continued strength in consumer spending will support economic growth, while persistent inflation, labor shortages, and policy risks will weigh on the small business outlook.”

Key findings

• The percent of small business owners reporting the quality or availability of labor as their top operating problem decreased one point to 25%, making it the top reported issue for the fourth consecutive month. The current reading is 13 points above the historical average of 12%.
• The second top issue in October was taxes, which rose notably from September. Twenty-one percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up ten points from September and the highest level since May 2021.
• Small business owners’ self-evaluation of the health of their business shifted positively, with more reporting their business as excellent and good rather than fair. When asked to evaluate the overall health of their business, 15% rated it as excellent (up two points), 54% as good (up six points), 26% as fair (down nine points), and 4% as poor (unchanged).
• In October, expectations for better business conditions improved, after two months of deterioration. A net 8% (seasonally adjusted) of owners expect better business conditions over the next six months, up two points from September and still above its average.
• Eleven percent (seasonally adjusted) reported that it is a good time to expand their business, up four points from September.
• A seasonally adjusted 36% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up four points from September and 12 points above the historical average.
• The two inventory components of the Optimism Index both downshifted, with the net percent with inventory “too low” falling three points to a net –3%, and planned inventory investments sliding three points as well to a net –1%.
• Inflation pressures grew in October as both price measures increased. A seasonally adjusted net 33% of owners reported raising average selling prices (up two points), and a net 37% plan to increase prices, up six points from September and the highest level since July 2022.
• In October, a net 13% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, up five points from September. This is the highest level since August 2024.