Small Business Optimism Declined 0.6 Points to 95.3 in May

Washington, DC, June 9, 2026—The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.6 points in May to 95.3, remaining below its 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose three points from April to 91, remaining well above its historical average of 68.

As reported in NFIB’s monthly Jobs Report, the NFIB Small Business Employment Index remained essentially flat, registering 100.3 in May. The current reading is below the 2025 average of 101.2 but still slightly above the historical average of 100.0. In May, a seasonally adjusted 29% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in May, down five points from April and marking the lowest level since May 2020.

“AI investment spending has contributed to some excitement in the economy,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Despite the enthusiasm around AI, the overall picture is divided. More small business owners are struggling with significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices, which are more challenging for small businesses to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors.”

Key findings include:

• The Employment Index remained essentially flat in May, registering 100.3 in May after measuring 100.4 in April. This is the third consecutive month in which the Index has declined. The current reading is below the 2025 average of 101.2 but slightly above the historical average of 100.0.
• In May, job openings and hiring plans fell notably to the lowest levels in six years. Twenty-nine percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down five points from April and marking the lowest level since May 2020.
• A seasonally adjusted net 9% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down four points from April, also marking the lowest level since May 2020.
• In May, 13% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down five points from April and marking the lowest level since December 2016.
• Fourteen percent of business owners reported labor costs as their single most important problem, up five points from April and the highest reading in the survey’s history.
• Sixteen percent (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners plan to make capital outlays in the next six months, down one point from April and the lowest level since March 2009.
• Reports of supply chain disruptions picked up in May, with a shift from those reporting no disruptions to those reporting mild or moderate disruptions. Seventy percent of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, up six points from April.
• In May, reports of both actual and planned price increases rose significantly. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose six points from April to a net 36% (seasonally adjusted), marking the highest reading since March 2023. A net 34% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, up seven points from April and marking the highest reading since July 2022.
• Eighteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, up two points from April and marking the highest reading since December 2024. Inflation ranks as the second top problem.