Rising House Prices Spurring Home Building

Washington, DC, April 26, 2013 -- Buoyed by rising home prices throughout much of the nation, both single-family and multifamily housing starts are expected to post double-digit gains over last year in 2013, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

However, headwinds continue to hold back stronger growth as the housing recovery evolves, according to economists at NAHB’s Spring 2013 Construction Forecast Conference Webinar.

“The broadening housing expansion is evidenced by the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index, which now lists 273 metros areas out of a universe of 361, or three-quarters of the metropolitan areas in the U.S.,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

The recent surge is almost all due to improvements in house prices across a broader number of markets, he added. Home price increases became more solid and consistent in 2012, and the latest data shows a nearly 6 percent annual rate of home price appreciation on a national basis.

Growth in the housing sector is rising at a much faster pace than the overall economy during this phase of the recovery, Crowe added. The residential fixed investment component of GDP was up 17.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 whereas total economic output only registered a 0.4 percent gain.

As demand for housing gradually picks up steam, supply chains for building materials, developed lots and skilled workers will take some time to re-establish themselves in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

Meanwhile, builders are feeling pinched by rising costs of key building components (prices of gypsum, softwood lumber and concrete are all above 90 percent of their housing boom peak), which is causing home construction costs to rise at a faster pace than appraised values, Crowe said.

Moreover, ongoing difficulties in obtaining construction credit, overly restrictive mortgage lending rules and uncertainty in Washington regarding the future of housing financial regulations and housing tax incentives, including the mortgage interest deduction and Low Income Housing Tax Credit, threaten to dampen consumer confidence and future housing demand.

Meanwhile, NAHB’s Multifamily Production Index, a leading indicator for the multifamily market, has jumped 38 points in the past four years and now stands at 54. For the past three quarters, the index has been above the critical tipping point of 50, where a reading of 50 means that an equal number of builders view conditions in the multifamily market as good and bad.

Multifamily starts are expected to rise to 334,000 units in 2013, up 35 percent from last year’s 247,000 level, bringing production back to the baseline level that is needed to keep the supply in balance with demand. Multifamily starts are anticipated to rise an additional 5 percent next year to 349,000 units.

The single-family market, which must make up the most ground to return to its 2000-2003 level of normal production (1.3 million units), continues to make steady gains. NAHB is forecasting 672,000 single-family housing starts in 2013, up 23 percent from the 534,000 units recorded last year. Single-family production is expected to rise an additional 28 percent in 2014, to 858,000 units.



Other Archived Articles

Domotex Asia Set for March 24-26   Full Article
Shanghai, China, Sept. 12, 2014 -- Domotex Asia/Chinafloor will be held March 24-26 in Shanghai.

Retail Sales Increase Broadly in August   Full Article
Washington, DC, Sept. 12, 2014 -- U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in August, as consumer bought automobiles and a variety of other goods, according to the Commerce Department.

Consumer Sentiment Highest in More Than a Year   Full Article
Ann Arbor, MI, Sept. 12, 2014 -- U.S. consumer sentiment rose in September to its highest level in more than a year, according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index.

Greenberg Fund Awards Two Scholarships   Full Article
Manchester, NH, Sept. 12, 2014 -- CCA Global Partners has announced the recipients of two $5,000 scholarships through the Alan Greenberg Scholarship Fund.

Dover Rug & Home Opens Boston Showroom   Full Article
Boston, MA, Sept. 12, 2014 -- Dover Rug & Home has opened a second location in Boston in the Back Bay.

Armstrong Headquarters Gets LEED Recertification   Full Article
Lancaster, PA, Sept. 11, 2014 -- Armstrong World Industries said its corporate headquarters building has been awarded LEED Platinum recertification from the U.S. Green Building Council.

Shaw Contract Names Winners of Design Contest   Full Article
Cartersville, GA, Sept. 11, 2014 -- Shaw Contract Group announced the winners of its annual Design is… competition.

Initial Unemployment Claims Rise Last week   Full Article
Washington, DC, Sept. 11, 2014 -- Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 315,000 last week, up from the previous week's revised total of 304,000, according to the Labor Department.

Dal-Tile Holding Groundbreaking for Tennessee Plant   Full Article
Dickson, TN, Sept. 11, 2014 -- Dal-Tile is scheduled to hold an invitation-only groundbreaking ceremony this afternoon for its new $180 million plant in Dickson County, according to the Tennessean newspaper.

Foreclosures Edge Higher in August   Full Article
Irvine, CA, Sept. 11, 2014 -- Foreclosures rose in August the first time in nearly four years, according to tracking firm RealtyTrac.

CFI Presents Awards at Annual Meeting   Full Article
Kansas City, MO, Sept. 11, 2014 -- The Certified Floorcovering Installers recently presented awards at its annual convention.

Tandus Centiva's Ethos Certified Cradle to Cradle   Full Article
Dalton, GA, Sept. 11, 2014 -- Tandus Centiva said it has been Cradle to Cradle Certified Silver for its Ethos modular soft surface products by the Cradle to Cradle Products Innovation Institute.

Wholesale Inventories, Sales Rise in July   Full Article
Washington, DC, Sept. 10, 2014 -- Wholesale inventories ticked up in July by the smallest amount in a year, according to the Commerce Department.

NAHB Praises Legislation to Limit EPA, Army Corps   Full Article
Washington, DC, Sept. 10, 2014 -- The National Association of Home Builders has commended legislation that would limit the authority of the EPA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers over "waters of the U.S."

Mortgage Applications Decline Last Week   Full Article
Washington, DC, Sept. 10, 2014 -- Mortgage application volume fell last week as interest rates rose for the first time in four weeks, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Bona Opens Training Center in Dallas   Full Article
Aurora, CO, Sept. 10, 2014 -- Bona US said it has opened a new regional training center in Dallas.

Job Openings Near 13-Year High   Full Article
Washington, DC, Sept. 9, 2014 -- The number of U.S. job openings remained near the highest level in 13 years in July, according to the Labor Deparment in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey.

Oriental Weavers Expands Presence at High Point   Full Article
Dalton, GA, Sept. 9, 2014 -- Oriental Weavers said it will open a new showroom and double the size of its High Point presence at the upcoming October market.

Armstrong Adds Installation System to Natural Creations   Full Article
Lancaster, PA, Sept. 9, 2014 -- Armstrong Commercial Flooring has added its luxury vinyl tile installation system called I-Set to its Natural Creations collection.

Mohawk Study Looks at Carpet in Hospital Setting   Full Article
Calhoun, GA, Sept. 9, 2014 -- A Mohawk-funded study shows that carpet tile relieves environmental stressors in hospital settings more effectively than terrazzo and rubber flooring.